Forecast: International Tourist Arrivals in Vietnam

Analyzing the international tourist arrivals in Vietnam from 2013 to 2023, the tourism industry has showcased robust growth with minor setbacks. From 2013 onwards, tourist arrivals increased significantly, reaching 18.009 million in 2019. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in 2020 with a -78.69% year-on-year variation. A swift recovery began in 2021, with a strong year-on-year growth of 224.15%, followed by a 55.67% increase in 2022 and a further 31.32% rise in 2023, closing at 25.425 million arrivals. The 5-year CAGR leading to 2023 stood at 10.41%.

Looking to the future, forecasts from 2024 onwards show continued growth with an estimated CAGR of 6.02% by 2028 and total arrivals reaching 37.299 million. Key trends to monitor include the impact of evolving global health policies on travel, the competitiveness of regional tourism offerings, and Vietnam's strategies to enhance tourism infrastructure and services.