The share of scientific publications from the US among the world's 10% top-cited publications in infectious diseases is projected to decline gradually from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, it stood at 14.4%. The forecasted values reflect a descending trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.27% from 2024 to 2025 and a consistent decline of approximately 1.3% through 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this five-year period projects an average annual decline, underscoring a gradual erosion of the US’s dominance in this high-impact research area.
Future trends to watch for include the potential impact of increased global collaboration and investment in infectious disease research, particularly by emerging countries. Additionally, disruption from new research technologies and methodologies could alter the landscape, potentially stabilizing or diversifying the origins of high-impact publications.
