The measles incidence forecasted for the US from 2024 to 2028 remains constant at 400 cases per hundred persons until 2028, when it increases to 500 cases. Compared to the pre-forecast period, the incidence level in 2023 serves as a baseline for these predictions. This forecast indicates a stable trend initially, followed by an abrupt increase of 25% in 2028 compared to the previous levels. Examining the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) over the five-year period reveals a modest overall growth in the incidence.

Future trends to monitor include:

Potential factors contributing to the rise in measles cases, particularly in 2028.
The effectiveness of ongoing vaccination campaigns and public health interventions.
Any changes in public health policy or shifts in population behavior regarding vaccination.
Global measles trends that could influence domestic incidence rates.