Forecast: Influenza Immunisation in South Korea

The influenza immunization rate among persons aged 65+ in South Korea has experienced fluctuations over the past decade. Starting from a rate of 79.8 in 2014, the rate generally rose until 2018, peaking at 85.8 in 2019. However, it then declined to 80.1 by 2021 before stabilizing around 80.3 to 80.5 through 2023. The year-on-year variations have also shown volatility, with significant drops in 2020 and 2021, likely due to disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, minor increases in 2022 and 2023 indicate a slow recovery.

Future trends from 2024 forecast a steady but modest increase in immunization rates, stabilizing around 81.4 by 2028. The 5-year CAGR remains low at 0.17%, suggesting very slow growth in participation rates. Major factors to watch for include:

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Potential policies to increase vaccination rates among the elderly.

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Public health campaigns aimed at addressing vaccine hesitancy.

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Changes in public perception and behavior due to future pandemics or public health crises.

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