From 2013 to 2023, the risk of catastrophic health expenditure due to surgical care in Kenya demonstrated a consistent downward trend, starting at 41.3 units and decreasing to 14.9 units by 2023. This decline was marked by varying year-on-year changes, including a significant reduction of 26.72% in 2015 and 12.35% in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years stood at -8.4%, further indicating substantial annual decreases.

Future trends to watch for:

Forecasts predict a further reduction, with the risk potentially falling to 5.2 units by 2028.
The anticipated CAGR for the next five years is projected at -16.62%, signifying accelerated improvement.
Continual monitoring of healthcare policy changes and economic factors will be crucial in understanding these trends.