In 2024, the forecasted production of lightweight diesel or semi-diesel goods vehicles in France is 451.94 thousand units. This signifies a continuation of the decreasing trend initiated prior to 2024. For 2025, the forecast anticipates a further reduction to 438.26 thousand units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3%. By 2026, the production is expected to decrease by 3.1% to 424.71 thousand units. The downward trend maintains this pace, as forecasted decreases are to 411.3 thousand units in 2027 (3.2% decline) and 398.02 thousand units in 2028 (3.2% decline). Over the five-year span from 2023 to 2028, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) projects an average decline rate that mirrors these individual year-on-year deductions.

Future trends to monitor include:

The impact of policy changes promoting electric and hybrid vehicles, as these may accelerate the decline.
Technological advancements in alternative fuel vehicles, possibly leading to a more pronounced shift away from diesel engines.
Regulatory pressures or incentives that could influence consumer preferences and production strategies towards more sustainable transport solutions.