Forecast: Arable Land Area Under Conversion to Organic Farming in Poland

The arable land area under conversion to organic farming in Poland stood at 0.53% of the total utilised agricultural area in 2023. This represents a gradual decline in recent years, with a year-on-year reduction of approximately 1.85% from 2022 to 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been -3.7%, indicating a consistent downward trend.

Historical analysis shows a fluctuation in conversion rates, starting with a high of 0.8% in 2013 and experiencing significant drops in the following years, such as a 43.75% decline in 2014 and a 13.33% decline in 2015. A noticeable recovery was observed in 2016 with an increase of 41.03%, followed by moderate growth until 2018. However, from 2020 onwards, the trend reflects a consistent decline.

Forecasts from 2024 onwards suggest a continued decrease in the arable land area under conversion, with expectations of reaching 0.50% by 2028. The five-year forecasted CAGR of -0.78% indicates a less steep decline compared to the historical trend, reflecting an industry slowly stabilizing.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Government policies and subsidies for organic farming, which could impact the conversion rates positively.
  • Consumer demand for organic products, influencing market dynamics and potentially reversing the decline.
  • Technological advancements in organic farming that could make it more viable and attractive to farmers.
  • Environmental factors and climate conditions that could impact agricultural practices and decisions.

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