The measles immunisation rate in Indonesia witnessed a notable fluctuation from 2013 to 2023. Starting at 98% in 2013, it declined to 91.8% in 2014. Between 2015 and 2019, the rates hovered around 92-95%, with a surge to 95.1% in 2019. However, the immunisation rate dipped significantly to 86.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic's impact on healthcare services. Slight recovery occurred thereafter, reaching 88.4% by 2023. The five-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 was -0.8%, reflecting an overall decline in the immunisation rate during this period.
As we look ahead from 2024 to 2028, the forecast suggests a minimal growth trend with an average annual growth rate of 0.1% and a forecasted five-year CAGR of 0.05%, expecting the rate to reach 88.6% by 2028. Although the immediate recovery post-2020 is progressing, it's gradual and not substantial enough to revert to the pre-pandemic levels swiftly.
Future trends to watch for:
- Government initiatives to boost immunisation rates.
- Impact of new healthcare policies and increased awareness campaigns.
- Potential introduction and adoption of advanced immunisation technologies.
- Response of the immunisation infrastructure to any new outbreaks or health crises.
