In Turkey, the actual refinery output for gas oil and diesel oil (excluding the biofuel portion) stood at 19.85 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.35%. Over the previous two years, the refinery output saw modest annual growth rates of 5.74% in 2022 and 1.56% in 2021. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last five years up to 2023 was 15.19%, indicating substantial growth in refinery output in the recent period.

Looking ahead, with forecast data projecting refinery output to reach 24.75 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2028, the average annual growth rate is expected to settle at a more moderate 3.49%. This results in an overall forecasted growth rate of 18.69% over the next five years.

In terms of future trends to watch for:

The potential impact of shifting energy policies and regulation aimed at carbon reduction.
Technological advancements in refinery processes and their effects on efficiency and output.
Market demand variability influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions both locally and globally.