In 2023, the share of scientific publications in the top 10% most-cited in Immunology and Microbiology from the US stood notably higher than future projections. Forecasted data from 2024 onwards shows a steady decline, from 11.75% in 2024 down to 8.58% by 2028. This represents a year-on-year decrease of approximately 6.81% from 2024 to 2025, 7.22% from 2025 to 2026, 7.77% from 2026 to 2027, and an 8.43% reduction from 2027 to 2028. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the five-year period reflects a consistent downward trend.
Looking ahead, researchers and policymakers should watch for potential impacting factors such as changes in research funding, collaboration dynamics, and technological advancements, all of which could affect the competitiveness and global ranking of US publications in these fields.
