Over the past decade, Malaysia's crude oil and condensate production has shown a declining trend. Actual data from 2013 to 2023 highlights fluctuating yet gradually decreasing volumes, standing at 495.0 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) in 2023. While there were sporadic increases till 2016, the subsequent years saw a steady drop, with a stark year-on-year reduction by 8.9% in 2020 and a continued decline by 1.49% in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the past five years reflected a negative growth of -5.38%.
From 2024, forecasted data anticipates this downward trajectory to persist although at a slower rate, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -1.24% and an estimated total decline of 6.03% by 2028, reaching 458.13 tbpd. Key trends to monitor in the future include:
• Regional geopolitical developments influencing oil exploration and production.
• Technological advancements in extraction and production efficiency.
• Global oil market fluctuations and their impact on Malaysia’s production capabilities.
