The reported malaria cases in Indonesia stood at 153.65 thousand in 2023, showing a consistent decline from the peak value of 343.53 thousand in 2013. Over the past five years leading up to 2023, the average year-on-year reduction has been around 4.22%, while the most recent two years show a sharper annual decline of 5.95% and 5.72%, respectively. The 2018 surge was an anomaly; overall, the trend has been downward, suggesting effective malaria control measures.
The forecast projects this downward trend to continue, with cases expected to drop to 102.89 thousand by 2028. This indicates a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -6.37% over the next five years, signifying a total reduction of 28.04% by 2028. Such projections reflect continuous improvements in public health measures and interventions aiming to eradicate malaria in Indonesia.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of climate change on malaria prevalence, potential resistance to malaria treatments, and the effectiveness of new vaccines and preventive measures. Monitoring these factors will be crucial to sustaining and accelerating the reduction in malaria cases.
