The estimated number of malaria cases in Indonesia has shown a significant declining trend from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, the actual number of malaria cases stood at approximately 950 thousand. Forecasted data for the subsequent years indicate a yearly decrease: 862.46 thousand cases in 2024, 782.15 thousand in 2025, 703.45 thousand in 2026, 626.33 thousand in 2027, and 550.74 thousand in 2028.
Year-on-year variations reflect consistent reductions in malaria cases:
- 2024 to 2025: -9.31%
- 2025 to 2026: -10.06%
- 2026 to 2027: -10.97%
- 2027 to 2028: -12.08%
Over the last two years, the CAGR is calculated to be approximately -10.6%, illustrating a steady decline in malaria incidence.
Future trends to watch for include continued governmental and non-governmental efforts in malaria prevention and control, potential impacts of climate change on malaria transmission patterns, and advancements in medical interventions such as vaccines and antimalarial treatments. These factors could influence the trajectory of malaria case reductions in Indonesia.
