Between 2013 and 2023, the total malaria incidence rate in Indonesia showed a significant decrease, dropping from 8.13 units in 2013 to 2.42 units in 2023. The year-on-year variation saw substantial fluctuations, with notable declines in 2018 (-42.92%) and consistent downward trends in the later years, particularly from 2020 onwards. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period was considerably negative, averaging around -8.97% over the last five years up to 2023.
Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 indicate a further sharp decline in malaria incidence rates, with a projected five-year CAGR of -30.02%, culminating in a rate of 0.33 units by 2028. This forecast represents an overall reduction of 83.22% over this period.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Continued investments in malaria prevention and treatment initiatives.
- Potential impacts of climate change and environmental shifts on malaria transmission rates.
- Effects of public health campaigns and advancements in medical technologies on further reducing incidence rates.
