The forecast data for reported diphtheria cases in India shows a consistent decline from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, the actual number of reported cases stood at 8,000. From 2024 onwards, each subsequent year witnesses a drop, with the number falling to 7,510 in 2024, which represents a decrease of approximately 6.13% compared to the actual cases in 2023. The year-on-year decrease continues with a decline of around 6.53% in 2025, 6.97% in 2026, 7.50% in 2027, and finally, a 7.95% decline in 2028. Overall, the five-year CAGR is approximately -6.62%.

Reduction of vaccination rates due to complacency or misinformation.
Potential emergence of new strains leading to sporadic outbreaks.
Shifts in healthcare policy and economic factors affecting public health funding.