Forecast: Mortality Caused by Road Traffic Injury in the UK

Mortality caused by road traffic injuries in the UK fluctuated moderately between 2013 and 2023, starting at 2.9 deaths per hundred thousand persons in 2013, peaking modestly at 3.2 in 2014 and 2019, and consistently declining to 2.7 in 2023. The year-on-year variation reveals fluctuations reflecting both increases and decreases, with a general declining trend evident from 2020 onwards. More importantly, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years shows a consistent decline, averaging -2.09% per year.

Looking to the future, the forecasted data indicate a continued decrease, with the mortality rate projected to decline to 2.2 by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR of -3.29% denotes a more accelerated decline rate compared to the past five years.

Future Trends to Watch For:

  • Further advancements in vehicle safety technologies and road infrastructures.
  • Increased implementation of stringent traffic laws and regulations.
  • Greater emphasis on public awareness campaigns focused on road safety.
  • The impact of emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles on accident rates.