The production of virgin olive oil in Italy has shown significant fluctuations over the years. The highest production was recorded in 2015 at 488.21 thousand metric tons. Since then, there has been a general downward trend. By 2023, production stood at 217.59 thousand metric tons, reflecting a decrease of 7.23% year-on-year. The five-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) as of 2023 was -4.76%.
Between 2013 and 2023, significant variations in production occurred, influenced by both climatic conditions and agricultural practices. The year 2014 saw the sharpest decline of 36.4%, while 2015 experienced a strong recovery with an increase of 65.54%. Despite these volatilities, the general trend has been downward.
Looking forward, the forecasted data suggest a continued decline in production, with a projected 35.17% reduction over the next five years and a forecasted CAGR of -8.3%. By 2028, production is expected to drop to 128.98 thousand metric tons.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of climate change on olive cultivation, advances in agricultural technology, and potential shifts in market demand for virgin olive oil. These factors could influence both the volume and stability of production in the coming years.
