The export value of avocados from Mexico to the US has shown a general upward trend from 2013 to 2023, reaching $2797.9 million in 2023. From 2013 to 2023, although there have been fluctuations, the overall trend has been positive. Noteworthy is the significant increase of 39.83% in 2017 and slight declines of -19.01% in 2018 and -0.57% in 2020. Over the last two years, the year-on-year variations have been 6.55% for 2022 and 6.09% for 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the past 5 years, from 2018 to 2023, is notably 9.51%.
Looking forward, from 2024 to 2028, the forecast suggests continued growth with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 3.88%, culminating in a 20.97% increase over the period. This trajectory anticipates reaching $3577.0 million by 2028. Future trends to watch for include global demand fluctuations, impacts of climate change on avocado production, trade policies between Mexico and the US, and potential new market entrants or substitutes that could affect export volumes and values.
