Forecast: Tourism Direct GDP in Indonesia

Indonesia's Tourism Direct GDP showcased varying trends over the years. Starting from 2013, there was a moderate increase annually, reflecting overall GDP growth in this sector. Between 2013 and 2019, variations fluctuated but with an overall increasing trend. However, in 2020, the sector saw a substantial dip due to the global pandemic, dropping by over 54%. This was followed by a robust recovery in 2021, with a 61.49% increase, and continued recovery through 2022.

In 2023, Tourism Direct GDP reached a value of 5.03, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.81%. Looking over the last two years, the sector bounced back with significant annual variations. Analyzing the last five years (2019-2023), the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) stands at 0.47%, indicating a slow but positive recovery trend.

Future projections (2024-2028) anticipate steady growth, albeit modest, with a forecasted CAGR of 0.32% and a cumulative growth rate of 1.62%. While growth in this sector is expected to stabilize, key future trends to watch include increasing digitalization in tourism services, sustainability practices, and the emerging influence of domestic tourism as travel behaviors evolve post-pandemic.