In 2023, Italy had approximately 2.12 thousand new bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases. From 2024 to 2028, forecasts predict gradual increases each year, with cases rising from 2.16 thousand to 2.29 thousand. The year-on-year growth Rates: 1.85% from 2024 to 2025, 1.36% from 2025 to 2026, and 1.35% from 2026 to 2027 and 1.33% from 2027 to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 is approximately 1.48% per year, indicating a modest but steady uptrend in the number of new cases.
Future trends to watch include the potential impact of public health interventions, vaccination strategies, and changes in healthcare accessibility, which may alter the TB incidence rate. Monitoring socio-economic factors and their influence on transmission dynamics will also be crucial.
