Over the past decade, pelagic fish demand in South Africa has exhibited substantial fluctuations. Starting from 280.85 thousand metric tons in 2014 and peaking at 291.86 thousand metric tons in 2015, the demand declined drastically by 37.96% in 2016. The trend continued with minor recoveries and subsequent dips. From 2019 to 2023, the demand has consistently trended downwards, culminating in a value of 153.42 thousand metric tons in 2023. Significant yearly variations include a 20.4% drop in 2020 and a 4.39% decrease in 2023. The 5-year CAGR also highlights an average annual decrease of 4.3%.
Looking ahead, the forecast indicates a continued decline in demand, with values expected to fall to 116.15 thousand metric tons by 2028. This represents a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -4.35% and an overall reduction in demand by 19.95%.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of climate change on fish populations, changes in consumer preferences towards sustainable seafood, and regulatory measures aimed at conserving fish stocks which could further influence demand and supply dynamics.
