In 2023, the total number of 10% top-cited scientific publications in artificial intelligence in the US was approximately 687. Forecasts suggest a steady increase from 2024 to 2028, with values ranging from 711.63 to 808.56. The annual growth rates for the upcoming years illustrate a consistent upward trend, indicating robust expansion in AI research prominence.

The year-on-year growth rates are 3.42% in 2025, 3.30% in 2026, 3.18% in 2027, and 3.06% in 2028, translating into a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.38% over the forecast period from 2024 to 2028.

Future trends to watch for include:

Increased cross-disciplinary AI research leading to higher citation impacts.
Evolving government and private sector investments likely fueling innovation.
Shifts in publication trends with emerging ethical standards and policy discussions.