Nigeria's vegetable oil export volume has seen significant fluctuations over the past decade, starting from 77,000 metric tons in 2014 to 33,000 metric tons in 2023, marking a prominent decline. This represents a -5.71% year-on-year decrease from 2022 to 2023 and a CAGR of -7.6% over the last five years. Early years, such as from 2015 to 2016, saw drastic drops of -50.65% and -31.58%, followed by a period of recovery and volatility. After reaching a temporary peak in 2018 with a 40% increase over the previous year, the trend reverted to a general decline.
Forecasts from 2024 onwards predict a continuous decrease in export volumes, with a forecasted CAGR of -5.97% over the next five years, leading to a 26.51% reduction by 2028. This anticipated decline warrants close monitoring of market conditions, policy impacts, and potential avenues for market diversification or value addition for mitigating long-term downward trends.
Future trends to watch for:
- Impact of local agricultural policies and subsidy programs on production and export capabilities.
- Global demand shifts and price volatilities in the international vegetable oil market.
- Technological advancements in production and processing that might boost efficiency and export competitiveness.
