Forecast: Domestic Tourism Expenditure on Tourism Characteristic Products in South Africa

From 2013 to 2023, domestic tourism expenditure in South Africa exhibited significant fluctuations, with notable growth peaks and occasional declines. Between 2013 and 2019, the sector saw a general upward trend, despite some years experiencing declines (-8.11% in 2015 and -8.57% in 2017). The year 2019 marked an exceptional growth of 34.2%, followed by a substantial decline of -19.4% in 2020 due to likely external shocks. A recovery trend is visible from 2021 onwards, with a 15.71% increase in 2022 and smaller, steady growth of 3.9% in 2023, bringing the value to 239.12 billion ZAR in 2023.

The forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 indicates a moderate average annual growth (CAGR) of 2.85%, projecting a total increase of 15.07% over the five-year period. Although growth is anticipated to continue, the rate will be slower than the preceding decade.

Looking ahead, emerging trends to watch include potential impacts of increasing global economic uncertainty, shifts in consumer travel behavior post-pandemic, and governmental policies aimed at boosting domestic tourism. Keeping an eye on these factors will be vital for accurate future assessments and strategic positioning in the tourism sector.