The forecasted number of incident tuberculosis cases, including HIV-positive cases, in Canada shows a gradual decline from 2024 to 2028. The initial value for 2024 is expected to be around 60 cases. By 2025, the number is anticipated to drop by approximately 1.7% to 59 cases, and by 1.7% in 2026 to 58 cases. The trend remains stable in 2027, with another slight decrease of 1.7% expected in 2028, resulting in 57 cases. These forecasts suggest an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about -1.3% over the five-year period.
Future trends to watch for:
- Continued efforts in public health interventions and TB prevention strategies could further drive down infection rates.
- Monitoring the impact of global travel and immigration patterns on TB incidence in Canada.
- The role of HIV management and social determinants of health in shaping TB trends.
