The production of centrifugal raw sugar in China showed significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023, peaking in 2014 at 14.741 million metric tons before experiencing a marked decline and stabilizing around 10.678 million metric tons in 2023. The most significant drops occurred between 2014 and 2016, with slow recovery and slight growth thereafter. The YoY variation for 2023 stood at -0.66% compared to 2022. Over the last five years, the CAGR was slightly negative at -1.37%, indicating a general downward trend in production.
From 2024 onwards, production is forecasted to continue this modest decline, reaching 10.309 million metric tons by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR is -0.56%, with an anticipated overall growth rate decrease of -2.75%. This suggests that the industry's recovery pace is limited, and production is set to drop slightly each year.
Future trends to watch for include potential policy shifts in agricultural subsidies or tariffs, technological advancements in sugarcane farming, environmental regulations, and changing domestic demand for sugar. These factors could significantly alter the forecasted decline in production.
