Forecast: International Tourist Arrivals in Nigeria

The data on international tourist arrivals in Nigeria shows a steady increase over time. In 2023, the arrivals stood at approximately 6.34 million. Analyzing the year-on-year growth reveals variability; the percentage changes range from -12.5% in 2016 to 25.28% in 2015. Over the past two years, growth has been at 2.04% and 1.96%, respectively. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years records a modest average annual increase of 2.13%.

Looking ahead, forecast data suggests a continued but slower growth trend, with a forecast five-year CAGR of 1.37% and a cumulative five-year growth rate of 7.03%. This indicates that while growth is expected to continue, it will be at a more subdued pace compared to historical patterns.

Future trends to watch for include:

• The potential impacts of global economic conditions on tourism.
• The effects of local policy changes or improvements in tourist infrastructure.
• Evolving traveler preferences and emerging tourism markets within Nigeria.
• Environmental and geopolitical factors that might influence international travel behaviors.