Forecast: Number of Commercial Bank Branches in Australia

The number of commercial bank branches in Australia has seen a consistent decline from 2013 to 2023, decreasing from 30.14 units per hundred thousand adults in 2013 to 22.54 in 2023. This equates to a significant reduction of approximately 25.2% over the decade. Notably, there was a brief uptick in 2017, with a 6.81% year-on-year increase, before resuming its downward trend.

Recently, the year-on-year variations have shown a consistent decline: a 3.03% drop in 2022 followed by a further 3.39% in 2023. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at -4.4%, indicating a steady and significant reduction.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a continued decline, with the number of branches projected to fall to 18.62 units by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is -3.06%, which translates to a 14.39% overall reduction from 2024 to 2028.

- Future trends to watch for include the increasing digitization of banking services, which could accelerate the closure of physical branches as consumers migrate to online platforms. Additionally, regulatory changes and economic fluctuations could further impact branch numbers.