The forecast for the sold production of milk and cream in Italy, with fat content exceeding 1% but not exceeding 6% in large immediate packings, shows a declining trend from 2024 through 2028. In 2024, production is estimated at 331.49 million kilograms, followed by a year-on-year decline of approximately 18% to 271.34 million kilograms in 2025. The trend continues with a further decline, as production is expected to decrease by around 21.9% in 2026 to 211.8 million kilograms, then by approximately 27.8% to 152.85 million kilograms in 2027, and a significant drop of about 38.2% to 94.488 million kilograms in 2028.
For context, the actual data from 2023 stood at 385.55 million kilograms, highlighting a steeper decrease when considering the forecasted period from 2024 onwards.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over this period indicates an average yearly decrease of roughly 20.35%.
Future trends to watch for include potential shifts in consumer preferences towards lower-fat dairy alternatives, regulatory changes impacting production processes, and economic factors influencing dairy industry profitability. Additionally, potential technological advancements in production efficiency and changes in export dynamics might alter these projections.
