Forecast: Production in Tour Operator Activities Sector in Spain

The production in the tour operator activities sector in Spain exhibits significant fluctuations over the years. From 2013 to 2017, there was a general upward trend with notable growth peaking in 2017 at €587.8 million. However, 2018 saw a sharp decline of around 30%, followed by a gradual recovery up to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly impacted the sector in 2020, causing a drop of over 71%. Post-2020, a partial recovery was noted, but the figures still remain significantly lower than pre-pandemic values, with a slight decrease seen in 2023. From 2024 onwards, forecasts indicate a substantial and consistent decline, with a sharp decrease from €235.1 million in 2024 to €50.1 million by 2028.

In 2023, the production value stood at €283.3 million. Year-on-year variations show a mix of rises and falls with notable growth periods and significant drops. Over the last two years, the year-on-year variation is -0.56%, while the last CAGR stands at -6.93%. Projections into the future indicate an average annual contraction of 26.6% over the next five years, amounting to a forecasted drop of 78.69% by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of evolving consumer behavior post-COVID, the influence of sustainability on travel choices, technological advancements in travel services, and geopolitical factors that could impact tourism flows.