Forecast: Tourism Expenditure of Rural Residents in China

From 2013 to 2019, tourism expenditures of rural residents in China experienced a consistent upward trend, with year-on-year variation ranging between 8% and 12.13%. In 2020, a sharp decline of 55.66% occurred, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing the value to 4.32 trillion yuan. The sector began to recover in 2021 with a 28.4% increase and showed substantial growth again in 2022 at 68.59%. By 2023, the value had reached 11.31 trillion yuan, marking a 20.91% increase year-on-year.

Looking forward, the forecast data indicates steady growth in rural tourism expenditure, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.57% from 2023 to 2028, and a total growth rate of 25.05% over the same period. The expected value will reach 15.11 trillion yuan by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include the impact of economic policies aimed at boosting rural incomes, technological advancements in tourism infrastructure, and potential global factors such as pandemic recovery and international relations that could influence tourism behaviors.