The virgin olive oil production in the US has shown substantial growth since 2013, starting at 10,000 metric tons and reaching an estimated 20,760 metric tons in 2023. The year-on-year variation indicates frequent fluctuation with significant increases and occasional drops, such as a 75% increase in 2015 and a smaller 4.34% increase in 2023. From 2019 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stabilized around 5.35%, demonstrating a general upward trend despite annual variances.
Between 2021 and 2023, production grew consistently at moderate rates, emphasizing stability in the industry. The forecast suggests continued growth with a CAGR of 2.83% from 2023 to 2028, projecting a virgin olive oil production of 24,860 metric tons by 2028. This implies a moderate overall growth rate of 15% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch for include technological advancements in production efficiency and sustainability, fluctuations in climate conditions impacting olive yields, and evolving consumer preferences towards healthier oils which could drive demand and further incentivize local production.
