The forecast for China's pork export volume indicates a consistent decline from the actual level in 2023, which stood at around 225 thousand metric tons. Year-on-year, the decline is notable, with 2024 seeing a 6% decrease, 2025 a 6.5% decrease, 2026 a 6.8% decrease, 2027 a 7.1% decrease, and 2028 an 8% decline. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over these five years illustrates an average decrease of approximately 6.88% annually.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Potential changes in global trade policies that could impact pork demand.
- Domestic production fluctuations affecting export surplus.
- Sustainability and ethical concerns influencing consumer preferences globally.
- Innovations in alternative protein sources potentially reducing export demand.
