Japan's share of scientific publications in the top 10% of AI-related work is projected to decline steadily from 2024 to 2028, starting at 3.56% in 2024 and decreasing to 3.06% by 2028. In 2023, this figure represented stability, underpinning a current downward trend. The year-on-year decrease averages around 3.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over five years indicating consistent contraction.
Future trends to watch for include Japan’s investment in AI research infrastructure and talent, potential policy shifts, and collaborations with leading AI research entities globally to counteract declining influence and maintain competitive positioning in high-impact AI research publications.
