The forecast for incident tuberculosis cases in Italy, combining both HIV-positive and HIV-negative cases, shows a consistent downward trend from 2024 to 2028. There is a predicted decrease from 188 cases in 2024 to 153 cases by 2028. Based on these projections, the year-on-year percentage change reflects a steady decline, with an annual decrease of approximately 4.90%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the five-year forecast period further supports this trend with an average annual reduction of 5.14%.
Future trends to watch for include potential shifts in health policies, vaccination rates, or the emergence of drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis. Such factors could influence the trajectory of tuberculosis incidence, either stalling the current downward trend or exacerbating its decline. Enhancing diagnostic and treatment access remains crucial in maintaining and accelerating the reduction in cases.
