In France, the forecasted number of incident tuberculosis cases, including HIV-positive cases, shows a steady decline from 212 cases in 2024 to 191 cases by 2028. This forecast indicates a year-on-year decrease in the number of cases.

The historical data from 2023 shows a need to ascertain the pattern leading into these forecasts. Assuming a previous trend of declining incidence, the variations indicate a consistent reduction in cases over the forecast period.

Key future trends to watch include:

Potential public health initiatives impacting the incidence rate.
Evolving strains of TB and their resistance to treatment.
The effect of social factors such as immigration and housing conditions on TB spread.