Forecast: Share of Travel Services in Commercial Service Exports in Saudi Arabia

Between 2013 and 2019, the share of travel services in commercial service exports in Saudi Arabia fluctuated but generally remained above 66%, peaking at 73.36% in 2015. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a significant drop, with shares plummeting to 48.2% in 2020 and further to 39.35% in 2021. In 2022, the share rebounded sharply to 75.97%, but it is expected to stabilize around the mid-60s from 2023 to 2028.

Year-on-year, the share decreased 13.3% in 2023 and a marginal 0.03% decrease forecasted for 2024. Over the last two years, the share declined by -41.1% in 2021 and rebounded by 93.1% in 2022. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is estimated to show a slight average annual decline of -0.01% from 2024 onward, with an overall five-year forecasted growth rate of -0.07% by 2028.

Future trends to watch for include potential volatility due to global travel demand, geopolitical changes, and Saudi Arabia’s strategic tourism initiatives under Vision 2030. Specifically, initiatives aimed at diversifying the economy and enhancing tourism could critically influence these forecasted trends.