In 2023, the share of scientific publications among the world's 10% top-cited publications in AI in the US was observed at a certain baseline level. From 2024 to 2028, forecasts indicate a gradually declining trend in this share, moving from 18.5 in 2024 to 18.22 in 2028. The year-on-year variations reflect a consistent negative trend of approximately 0.4% per annum for each subsequent year. The compound annual growth rate over the five-year period reflects a small but steady decline.
Future trends to watch for include increased competition from emerging AI research hubs globally, potential changes in research funding, and advancements in AI fields that may shift focus areas or increase global citations. Monitoring global collaboration networks and technological innovations will also be crucial for understanding shifts in citation impact.
