Forecast: Share of Corresponding/Leading Author in Scientific Publications in Artificial Intelligence in China

Analysis of the share of corresponding/leading authors in AI scientific publications in China indicates a gradual decrease from 97.22 in 2024 to 96.99 by 2028. The year-on-year percentage decreases slightly, indicating stability but a slight erosion. Variations are minimal, but enough to hint at potential shifts in authorship dynamics. In contrast, 2023 data, not provided here, would be necessary for a complete baseline comparison.

Future trends to watch:

  • Potential increase in international collaboration, which could further reduce the share of Chinese corresponding/leading authors.
  • Policy changes or incentives in China promoting local researchers' leadership roles might impact future trends.
  • Emerging AI research hubs outside of China could diversify authorship in global AI research publications.

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