In 2023, Japan's share of the world's top 10% most-cited AI publications was a key benchmark. From 2024 onwards, a forecasted decline is observed from 3.56% to 3.06% by 2028. This gradual decrease represents an average annual fall of approximately 2.9% based on the five-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). Consequently, Japan's relative global position in AI-cited publications appears to be weakening over this period.

Future trends to watch for:

Increasing competition from other countries in AI research could be a factor in Japan's declining share.
Efforts to enhance collaboration and funding in AI may help Japan stabilize or improve its position.
Evolving technological advancements and their integration into research activities can potentially reverse current trends.