The avocado production in Africa has displayed a pronounced upward trajectory from 2013 to 2023, with production recorded at 1054.4 thousand metric tons in 2023. This uptrend is marked by noticeable year-on-year fluctuations, with particularly significant increases in 2014 (36.29%) and 2019 (14.28%). However, there were also periodic declines, such as in 2015 and 2020, indicating variability in production factors.
In the short term, 2022 and 2023 saw modest growth rates of 3.4% and 3.22% respectively. Over the last five years, the CAGR maintained a steady pace at around 4.8%. Looking ahead, the forecast for the next five years predicts a slower growth rate, with a forecasted CAGR of 2.37%, culminating in an estimated production of 1226.4 thousand metric tons by 2028, representing a total growth rate of 12.45% over this period.
Future trends to watch include the impact of climate change, agricultural innovation, market demand in export markets, and domestic consumption patterns. Additionally, infrastructure development in major producing countries and policies aimed at sustainable farming practices may influence production levels and growth rates.
