Forecast: Coffee Production in Kenya

In 2023, coffee production in Kenya stood at 919.42 thousand units (bags of 60 kg). The past decade has seen fluctuations, with a notable drop and subsequent recovery in production. For instance, from 2016 to 2017, there was a minor year-on-year decline, but a significant 17.85% jump in 2018. However, the CAGR from 2013 to 2023 averaged around –0.24%, reflecting generally stagnant growth over the decade.

From 2021 to 2023, there was modest growth, with year-on-year increases of 6.02%, 0.7%, and 0.68%, respectively. Forecasts indicate a steady but slight growth, with a 2028 forecasted value of 952.07 thousand units and a projected 5-year CAGR of approximately 0.55%.

Future trends to watch:

• Climate change impacts on yield and quality
• Adoption of sustainable farming practices
• Market dynamics and international competition