The alumina production in Indonesia has shown a consistent upward trend from 2015 to 2023. In 2023, the production stood at 1.25 million metric tons. Notably, the year-on-year growth for 2022 was 6.19%, and for 2023, it was 5.72%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years leading up to 2023 averaged 5.81%. Over the next five years, the forecasted CAGR is expected to be 3.9%, with an overall growth rate of 21.06% by 2028.
In the short-term, fluctuations were notable with significant increases such as a 757.14% rise in 2016 and a decrease of 13.18% in 2020. Longer-term trends demonstrate substantial growth, with the highest CAGR recorded at 94.41% in 2019. The growth trajectory adjusted to steadier increases in recent years, featuring a 28.61% rise in 2021 before stabilizing to more moderate growth through 2022 and 2023.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of global aluminum demand, technological advancements in alumina extraction, and Indonesian government policies encouraging mineral processing within the country. Monitoring these factors will be crucial to understanding potential variances in the projected growth of alumina production.
