The incidence of tuberculosis (including HIV-positive cases) in the UK is projected to decline steadily from 2024 to 2028, with a starting forecast of 200.0 cases per hundred persons in 2024, decreasing annually by approximately 20 cases each year to reach 120.0 by 2028. Year-on-year, this represents an approximate reduction of 10% each year.

Future trends to watch for include:

Further advancements in medical treatments and interventions that could accelerate the decline.
The impact of public health policies and programs on controlling the spread of tuberculosis.
Potential fluctuations in incidence rates should there be changes in demographic or socio-economic conditions.