The number of top-cited AI scientific publications in the US is forecasted to continuously increase, from 711 in 2024 to 809 by 2028. Compared to the estimated 2023 figure, the consistent annual rise reflects a robust growth trend in AI research within the top 10% citation bracket. Year-on-year growth averages about 3.3%, while the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the period from 2024 to 2028 reflects a steady upward trajectory in published research.

Future trends to watch for:

Increased collaboration between academia and industry may drive further spikes in high-impact research.
Advancements in machine learning tools could accelerate the volume and innovation of AI research.
Policy and funding shifts might influence the trajectory of publication outputs.