Wheat demand in Nigeria has shown a gradual upward trend over the past decade. From 2014 to 2023, wheat demand varied year-on-year, with significant fluctuations such as in 2015 (-0.68%) and 2017 (6.05%), followed by a steadier growth pattern in recent years, standing at 5.26 million metric tons in 2023. The average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been modest, reflecting historical volatility with a 0.44% growth rate in 2023.
Moving forward, the forecasts anticipate a continued increase in demand, projected to reach 5.44 million metric tons by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR is estimated at 0.53%, suggesting a steady yet slow growth rate of 2.68% over this period.
Trends to watch for include:
- Population growth and urbanization drive the increased demand for wheat-based products.
- Economic conditions and potential impacts of policy changes on agricultural import practices.
- Climate change and its effects on local agricultural productivity and supply.
- Technological advancements in farming and food processing.
