The forecast indicates a continuous decline in the percentage of male daily smokers aged 15 and over in the UK from 2024 to 2028. The percentage is expected to decrease from 15.4% in 2024 to 13.7% in 2028. In 2023, this figure stood at 15.8%, marking a clear downward trend. Year-on-year variations show a reduction of approximately 3.2% from 2024 to 2025, 2.7% from 2025 to 2026, 2.8% from 2026 to 2027, and 2.8% from 2027 to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over these five years is –2.8% per year, highlighting a consistent decline.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of stricter tobacco regulations, increasing public health campaigns, and the rising popularity of alternative nicotine products like e-cigarettes, which may accelerate the decline in smoking rates. Economic factors and social attitudes towards smoking will also play crucial roles in shaping the trend.
