The forecast for the number of total daily smokers in Japan shows a consistent decline from 14.8% in 2024 to 13.1% in 2028 among persons aged 15+. This downward trend suggests a notable reduction in smoking rates year-on-year.
The year-on-year variation is as follows:
- From 2024 to 2025: -3.38%
- From 2025 to 2026: -2.8%
- From 2026 to 2027: -2.88%
- From 2027 to 2028: -2.96%
The average annual decrease (CAGR) over the five-year period from 2024 to 2028 is approximately -3%.
In the longer term, the trend of declining smoking rates in Japan reflects ongoing public health initiatives, increasing health awareness, and stringent tobacco regulations. Key future trends to watch include the potential rise in alternative nicotine products such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products as they might impact the overall smoking rates.
