Analysing the historical production of cocoa beans in Brazil from 2013 to 2023 shows varying trends. Production increased steadily from 256.19 thousand metric tons in 2013 to 278.3 in 2015, followed by a significant drop in 2016 to 213.87. Post-2016, there was a gradual recovery, peaking again at 259.43 thousand metric tons in 2019, then slightly fluctuating around 256-259 thousand metric tons from 2020 to 2023. The value stood at 257.9 thousand metric tons in 2023.
Year-on-year variations indicate mixed growth, with notable increases of 6.87% in 2014 and 8.4% in 2019 and a significant drop of -23.15% in 2016. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years was 1.51%.
Forecasts from 2024 to 2028 predict a modest increase, with production reaching 264.29 thousand metric tons by 2028. The forecasted five-year CAGR is 0.39%, indicating a slow growth rate.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Impact of climate change on cocoa production.
- Advancements in agricultural technologies and their adoption rate.
- Evolving market demands and potential new cocoa bean varieties.
- Policy changes affecting the agricultural sector in Brazil.
