Over the last decade, US wheat export volume has shown variability. Between 2014 and 2019, the export volume displayed fluctuations, hitting a low in 2015 and peaking in 2017. Post-2019, the export volume stabilized, averaging around 24-25 million metric tons, but exhibited a slow decline. The last two years (2022 and 2023) witnessed a modest year-on-year decrease (-0.64% and -0.63% respectively). The average annual variation per year over the last 5 years (CAGR) was -0.53%.
Looking ahead, the forecast for 2024-2028 suggests a continued gradual decline in wheat export volume, with a projected 5-year growth rate at -2.62%. Factors influencing future trends include:
- Global demand shifts and competitive global suppliers.
- Climate variability impacting US crop yields.
- Trade policies and international relations.
- Technological enhancements in agriculture.
